A 1-in-500 year drought caused output to plummet by 20% (-66 TWh) in 2022, but almost all of this drop (95%) occurred from January to September, before the start of winter. Hydro generation remained similar to the previous winter. Combined, they provided almost a quarter of the EU’s electricity over the winter period, up 6% year-on-year (18 TWh). Wind and solar generation continued on the upward trajectory seen throughout 2022. Consequently, the EU has come out of this winter with gas storage capacity at 56% (60 bcm), double the levels at the end of March 2022. This fall in gas demand for electricity generation also enabled gas to be used more efficiently in priority areas such as heating and refilling storage facilities. This represents 16% of the total cut in winter Russian gas imports (-42 bcm) compared to the previous winter, equating to €6 billion in avoided gas costs. The decline in gas generation of 38 TWh (-13%) resulted in reduced gas consumption of 7 bcm this winter. And demand flexibility will be a critical part of Europe’s future power system: any gains made in recent months in this much-needed service should be evaluated, consolidated, and quickly built on. Demand reductions that can be maintained sustainably should be, in order to reduce strain on grid infrastructure. While Europe will be glad to put a difficult winter behind it, the measures taken should be learned from to inform the accelerating transition away from fossil fuels. On the contrary, spring is starting in Europe with coal generation down in six of the previous seven months, historically high gas storage levels, and industry forecasts of continued renewable growth to come. Now, with Europe successfully on the other side of this winter and major supply disruptions avoided, it is clear the threatened coal comeback did not materialise. With fossil fuel generation down, EU power sector emissions during winter were the lowest they have ever been. Due to this decrease, coal and gas generation dropped sharply year-on-year for the winter period spanning October 2022 to March 2023, generating less than renewables for the first time in winter. Alongside this, warmer weather and high electricity prices caused demand to drop across the EU. Record solar and wind growth helped plug the generation deficit but speculation continued around the EU’s ‘return to coal’.Īs part of an effort to tackle the energy crisis, the EU set a voluntary electricity demand reduction target for Member States over winter. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the cost of gas sky high, whilst low nuclear and hydropower generation further exacerbated the energy crisis. Europe’s power sector had already suffered a tumultuous year. As the EU headed into winter 2022 with fears of gas shortages and a raging cost of living crisis, there was understandable concern over how the electricity system and consumers would cope during the coldest months.
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